An oceanfront residence.
A proven investment.
Kapalua Bay Villa · Unit 22 P 3-4
A second home on the Kapalua coastline that earns its return two ways at once. Positive rental cash flow from year one, alongside long-term appreciation on a supply-constrained island. The numbers below tell one story; the comparable next door tells another.
An asset that earns two ways at once.
Income now. Wealth over time. Plus four weeks a year in an oceanfront villa you own outright.
Kapalua sits on the northwest tip of Maui, a stretch of coastline that has been a luxury destination for four decades. The supply of oceanfront villas is fixed, demand is not. That single dynamic is why the underlying asset has averaged just over 6 percent annual appreciation across forty plus years, and closer to 8 percent over the last decade.
This unit pays for itself from day one. Short-term rental income covers the carrying costs and clears roughly $36,000 per year in net cash flow, while two-week stays twice a year replace another $14,000 in vacation lodging you would otherwise be paying. The property remains cash-flow positive throughout the hold.
Ten years from purchase, the modeling projects the asset at roughly $2.28 million on a 5 percent annual appreciation assumption (which sits below the long-term and recent Maui averages). Combined with cumulative income, that is approximately $1.24 million in total wealth created on the original $1.4 million cash investment.
Two weeks, twice a year in your own oceanfront villa. You own the asset instead of paying someone else.
Positive cash flow from year one, plus long-term appreciation on a supply-constrained island.
Year by year, the asset compounds.
The villa earns its return two ways at once — income (rental revenue plus the lodging you no longer pay for) and appreciation. Counting both, the investment recoups its $1.4M purchase price on a total-return basis in roughly year 12, while remaining cash-flow positive the entire time.
| End of Year | Villa Value | Annual Net Benefit | Cumulative Income | Total Wealth Created |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1,470,000 | $35,600 | $35,600 | $105,600 |
| Year 3 | $1,620,675 | $35,600 | $106,800 | $327,475 |
| Year 5 | $1,786,769 | $35,600 | $178,000 | $564,769 |
| Year 7 | $1,969,931 | $35,600 | $249,200 | $819,131 |
| Year 10 | $2,280,452 | $35,600 | $356,000 | $1,236,452 |
Nothing hidden. Every assumption.
Two bedrooms, two baths. The renovation knows where to spend.
Same footprint as the unit next door. The renovation budget concentrates where it creates the most value — the living spaces and the baths — and leaves the bedrooms with new flooring only.
Renovation Scope
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Living RoomFull finish update, new flooring
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KitchenCabinets, counters, appliances, lighting
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DiningRefinish, lighting, integrated with living
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Primary BathFull gut: tile, vanity, shower, fixtures
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Secondary BathFull gut: tile, vanity, fixtures
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Bedrooms (2)Flooring only — hardwood in place of carpet
The unit we’re buying. The unit next door that proves it.
Unit 22 P 3-4 is dated. The unit directly next door has already been fully renovated — same building, same view of the Pacific, same floor plan, just flipped. It’s the after picture for the before we’re acquiring.
The Approach
The Living Spaces
The Bathrooms
Bedrooms · Before
The only change is the flooring.
Both bedrooms are getting hardwood in place of the existing carpet. That’s the entire scope. No layout changes, no walls moved, no fixtures swapped. The renovation budget concentrates where it has the biggest impact — the living spaces and the baths.
More of the renovated unit next door.
Same building. Same view. Same potential.
The two units share a wall. The ocean view is identical and the floor plan is mirrored. What you’re seeing on the right of each slider is what 22 P 3-4 becomes after renovation. The plan is to acquire the dated unit, bring it to the standard of the unit next door, and capture the value differential the next-door owners have already realized.
The proof isn’t a model. It’s the unit next door.
Most investment cases lean on projections. This one has a real comparable, sharing a wall with the unit we’re buying. Same building. Same ocean view. Same floor plan. The only meaningful difference is that one has been renovated, and one is about to be.
Unit 22 P 3-4
Dated finishes. Original layout. Renovation-ready.
- Same building, same view as the comp
- Original finishes throughout, structurally sound
- Renovation scoped to living spaces and baths
- Bedrooms get new flooring only
The Unit Next Door
Same building. Same view. Fully renovated.
- Adjacent unit, shared wall
- Renovated to current luxury standard
- Real transacted value, not modeled
- Establishes the post-renovation comp
*Top end of the renovation range, before any appreciation. Day-one equity widens to ~$250K at the low end of the reno budget.
A real trade de-risks the model.
The 10-year wealth projection on this page is built on a conservative 5% annual appreciation assumption, below both the 40-year and recent Maui averages. The next-door comp adds a second, independent proof point: identical asset, already renovated, already transacted at $1.9M. The investment thesis doesn’t require Maui to keep appreciating to work. It works on day one if the renovated value of 22 P 3-4 approaches what the unit next door has already commanded.
The base case understates the likely outcome.
Every assumption in this model was chosen on the cautious side of the data. Three of the more material ones are worth naming out loud.
Appreciation is modeled at 5%.
Maui has averaged ~6.3% annually over 40+ years and ~8.4% over the past decade. At 6%, total wealth created over ten years rises to roughly $1.46M. The 5% baseline is deliberately below both historical averages.
Recent softness is a known shock, not a trend.
The 2-year price softness on West Maui reflects the 2023 Lahaina wildfire and the visitor pullback that followed. The market has been recovering. A 10-year horizon is used here precisely to absorb that shock rather than over-react to it.
Tax treatment is not included.
All figures shown are pre-tax. On a rental investment held this long, depreciation typically improves the after-tax return materially. We modeled the harder, more pessimistic number and left the tax benefit as upside.
Disclosure. Numbers should be confirmed against the unit’s actual rental history and any pending HOA assessments before closing. Rental income assumes short-term-rental rights continue. Projections are estimates based on stated assumptions and current market data; actual results will vary.
Got a question? Get a real answer.
The assistant has been trained on every figure, assumption, and detail behind this opportunity. Ask about the comp, the renovation, the HOA, the rental projections — or whatever else would help you think this through.
Ready for the conversation?
Denee Sizemore is the agent on this transaction and has been on the ground in Kapalua. She’ll walk through every line item, the renovation plan, the comp, and the deal structure — on your timeline.
Or just reply to the message you got from Denee. She’s expecting you.